Have you noticed an influx of visiting yachts recently?
Yes, they are migrating away from the tropics because the cyclone season is upon us.
Nominally fro 1 Nov to 30 April, we usually see 1 or 2 cyclones getting as far as New Zealand waters during this period.
Earth Sciences New Zealand is predicting a busy cyclone activity for those parts of the Pacific east of the date line this time, especially for French Polynesia.
This report was developed with contributions from New Zealand’s MetService, the University of Newcastle in Australia, and various Pacific Islands met services.
MetBob. Bob McDavitt is the weather guru that uses //etBoB to provide meteorological information for cruising sailors, primarily for those in the South Pacific.
- For north, central and northeast areas – including Samoa, Tokelau, French Polynesia and parts of Kiribati – there is an elevated risk.
- For New Caledonia and Vanuatu – there is a normal to reduced risk.
- For north of the Coral Sea and the west central area of the southwest Pacific, including Fiji and Tonga, near normal activity is forecast.
The main factor this year is a very strong El Nino. This is a climate driver that affects tropical weather and it is breaking records this year. However, in the New Zealand area, somewhat removed from the equator, the cyclone risk for the coming season is normal.
https://www.earthsciences.nz/news/normal-to-above-normal-tropical-cyclone-activity-expected-for-the-southwest-pacific
Bob McDavitt